CapWatch:
September 15, 2025

Minnesota State CapWatch

Stephenson Elected Leader; Walz Announcement Expected

On September 15, 2025, the Minnesota House Democratic Farmer Labor (“DFL”) Caucus elected Rep. Zack Stephenson (DFL-Brooklyn Park) as their new caucus leader. Stephenson will have to step in and fill the shoes of former DFL Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman, which many see is a big job. Currently in his fourth term in the House of Representatives, Rep. Stephenson has experience in high profile positions, having previously shepherded legislative legalizing and regulating adult use of cannabis in the House of Representatives. That experience is likely to be put to the test early in Rep. Stephenson’s tenure as a potential special legislative session dedicated to issues related to gun violence looms on the horizon.

Minnesota’s two-term Democratic Gov. Tim Walz has yet to announced whether he intends to seek an unprecedented third term in 2026, but his recent public appearances trend toward him hitting the campaign trail again. Having previously stated that he would make an announcement after Labor Day, Walz stated last week that he intends to announce his decision sometime this week. Democrats await his decision as his announcement will have major impacts on candidates for office across the state should he decide not to run.

Special Session Still a Topic of Discussion

Gov. Walz will meet with legislative leaders on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of a special session to address gun violence. The governor has outlined a series of proposals, including a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, a safe storage law, requiring gun owners to have liability insurance, and a stricter red flag law. Meanwhile, Republican leadership has focused on increasing security and mental health services, including proposals to allow taxpayer money for security for private schools, funds to support school resource officers in all schools, increased funding for mental health services, and limitations on the provision of certain gender-affirming care.

While only the governor has the authority to call a special session, once the legislature is in session, only the legislators can choose if/when to adjourn and what issues they decide to take up. Customarily, the governor and all four legislative leaders reach a signed agreement about the parameters of the session prior to the governor formally setting a date. However, with an agreement on such a contentious issue unlikely, it could get complicated because the even split and pending special elections mean no one party has enough votes in either chamber to pass its own proposals. The Minnesota Senate is holding two meetings of the Gun Violence Prevention Working Group this week to discuss potential proposals related to special session.

Fraud Committee to Meet This Week

The House Fraud Prevention and State Oversight Policy Committee, chaired by Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), will meet this week to continue the discussion related to improper spending of taxpayer funds within government services, mainly within the Minnesota Department of Human Services. Additional investigations into government funded programs have brought significant concern over how the dollars are being used. The committee will discuss the recent concerns within the Housing Stabilization Services and Integrated Community Supports programs and hear from the Minnesota Department of Human Services related to these matters.

Federal CapWatch

Federal Funding Outlook – The Big Picture

With just 15 days until the government-funding deadline, this week will be pivotal in determining whether Congress can avoid a shutdown on October 1. While shutdowns are damaging both politically and practically, the two parties remain far apart, each betting on their own strategy. Unless there’s movement, a shutdown looks increasingly likely.

House Dynamics

• Continuing Resolution (CR): House Republican leaders plan to advance a stopgap funding bill through November 20. They are calling it a “clean” CR, but it excludes Democrats’ priorities — particularly health care provisions.
• Vote Math: Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose only two Republican votes. With Rep. Thomas Massie expected to oppose the measure, Johnson’s margin is razor thin.
• Leadership Argument: GOP leaders will urge members to pass the CR with only Republican votes to strengthen their hand in negotiations. But many conservatives are wary that the Senate will ultimately send back a bipartisan deal filled with Democratic priorities.

Senate Dynamics

• Democrats’ Position: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries have said they won’t support a CR that omits health care provisions and other issues they consider essential. Democrats appear unified and ready to filibuster.
• Procedural Hurdles: Even if the House passes its bill early, Senate timing could slip into next week, potentially cutting into the Rosh Hashanah recess.
• The Likely Standoff: Republicans argue Democrats are being unreasonable, while Democrats contend Republicans refuse to negotiate. Historically, Republicans have borne more political blame for shutdowns, which Democrats appear confident in this round as well.

What to Watch This Week

• Release of the House GOP’s CR text and whether Johnson can secure 218 votes.
• Senate Democrats’ response strategy and the likelihood of a filibuster.
• Whether Congress will cancel or shorten the planned recess to deal with the funding crisis.
• Security funding requests for members of Congress remain unresolved and could become a sticking point.

Bottom Line

We are officially in the “danger zone.” Both sides appear entrenched, and while last-minute deals are common, the dynamics suggest a shutdown is more likely than not. The next several days will provide a clearer picture of whether a path exists to keep the government open past October 1.