Minnesota Political Update
As we look toward the 2026 legislative session, there are still many moving pieces within the legislature. From special elections to changes in committee leadership, we will continue to see the pieces of the puzzle come together as session draws near. The following are a few developments from the past week:
Congress has entered the final month of a turbulent 2025, and both chambers face a packed agenda before adjourning for the holidays. The House has 13 days left in session and the Senate has 12, creating a compressed window to address several high-stakes issues.
Health Care
The most urgent deadline ahead is December 31, when enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies expire. Millions of individuals and small businesses could face higher premiums or risk losing coverage if Congress does not act.
Before Thanksgiving, the President privately signaled potential interest in a limited two-year extension of the subsidies, creating political space for a broader health care debate. That position shifted after resistance from congressional Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson. At this point, it appears unlikely the administration will put forward its own proposal. This leaves Congress to manage the issue internally, causing concern among vulnerable House and Senate Republicans who view an extension as necessary ahead of the 2026 elections.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has committed to holding a vote on extending the subsidies next week. Without engagement from the White House, the Senate is preparing for a partisan standoff, with each party expected to advance its own approach without reaching the 60-vote threshold. Senate Democrats are likely to return to their initial position of a clean extension, complicating bipartisan discussions.
Inside the House, leadership recognizes that rank-and-file Republicans in competitive districts will want a vote on health care in the coming weeks. Discussions are underway on a House GOP proposal focused on expanding health savings accounts and allowing companies to pool insurance plans. Significant concerns remain among Republicans regarding the interaction of tax credits and the Hyde Amendment.
Government Funding
Senator Thune is working to advance the next FY2026 appropriations package following the 43-day government shutdown. His goal is to combine Defense, Labor-HHS, Transportation-HUD, and Commerce-Justice-Science into a single minibus, with the Interior bill potentially included as well.
Moving forward will require unanimous consent in the Senate, and both parties continue to test for objections. Thune plans to use the previously failed October Defense appropriations bill as the legislative vehicle, and he may bring it back up as early as this week. Floor time remains tight due to judicial and executive branch nominations.
House Republican leadership does not expect to schedule any appropriations bills this month, preferring to wait for Senate action.
National Defense Authorization Act
Final text for the National Defense Authorization Act is expected this week, with public release shortly after.
The GAIN AI provision remains unsettled. The measure, authored by Senator Jim Banks, would restrict foreign exports of advanced chips. Nvidia strongly opposes the language. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast has revised the proposal to give Congress authority over export decisions, but the White House and House Republican leadership continue to have concerns. Nvidia’s CEO will be on Capitol Hill Wednesday for meetings with the Senate Banking Committee.
Separately, House Republican leaders, Senator Ted Cruz, and the White House have reached agreement on language in the NDAA that would prevent states from regulating artificial intelligence. This provision has been a priority for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Democratic support remains uncertain.
House Action This Week
The House will consider the SCORE Act, a major collegiate athletics bill regulating name-image-likeness agreements. The weekly House Republican meeting on Tuesday will be held at the Capitol Hill Club.
The NRCC will host its annual New York City fundraiser this weekend, followed by a retreat for House GOP staff directors in Boston next week, where the 2026 agenda is expected to be a central topic. The House is also preparing to take up a series of permitting reform bills next week.
Special Election
A costly special election will take place Tuesday in a strongly Republican district in Tennessee. Speaker Johnson is campaigning today for the GOP candidate, Matt Van Epps. Although former Congressman Mark Green won the district by a wide margin in 2024, local Republicans predict a much narrower five-point victory. This would deepen concerns about the shrinking House Republican majority and the potential for further erosion over the coming year.
Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs continues to track these developments closely. We will position your federal priorities to take advantage of every viable opportunity as Congress moves through this highly compressed year-end window.
