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CapWatch:
December 15, 2025

CapWatch - Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs

Minnesota State CapWatch

Discussions of Fraud Remain Front and Center 

Amidst national scrutiny and continued concerns over reports of fraud within state programs, Gov. Tim Walz held a press conference last Friday to announce a new fraud-prevention program. In doing so, Gov. Walz announced the appointment of Judge Tim O’Malley as the state’s new Director of Program Integrity.

Currently the interim chief judge of the Court of Administrative Hearings, O’Malley previously served as the superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension (BCA) under Gov. Tim Pawlenty. O’Malley also previously served as director of Ministerial Standards and Safe Environment with the Archdiocese of St. Paul and Minneapolis to lead efforts promoting child protection and clergy accountability.

Gov. Walz also announced the state’s engagement of WayPoint, Inc, a Minnesota-based professional service firm of former law enforcement and federal special agents, specializing in forensic accounting, financial investigations, health care compliance and investigations, and tax litigation support.

Gov. Walz Returns to Discussion of Gun Control

During the news conference last Friday, Gov. Walz also discussed his intentions to promote a series of gun control measures in advance of the 2026 legislative session. He said he plans to take “incredibly aggressive executive actions” He was critical of some legislators and blamed them for a lack of legislative action this fall. The governor did not outline specific proposals but made it clear that this will be a priority for him heading into 2026.

Minnesota Political News & Updates

As we look toward the 2026 legislative session and the 2026 elections, the political landscape continues to evolve as individuals announce retirements or new political endeavors. The following are a few developments from the past week:

Federal CapWatch

Health Care Front and Center as Holiday Break Approaches

This is the final scheduled week in session for both the House and Senate before the Christmas recess. Lawmakers will not return until after January 5.

It is a consequential week for two reasons. First, the Senate is expected to take up and pass the National Defense Authorization Act, the annual defense policy bill that has been enacted for 64 consecutive years. The more than 3,000-page package has already cleared the House, making the Senate the final stop. The chamber is also expected to clear a package of nearly 100 nominees and hold floor votes on several individual nominations.

The primary focus, however, will be the House. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican leadership are moving forward with the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, their response to the December 31 expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.

Speaker Johnson is now facing resistance from moderate Republicans, a dynamic that could derail the bill. With just 17 days remaining until the enhanced subsidies expire, it is increasingly clear that Congress and the country are headed toward an Affordable Care Act cliff. Even if the House advances legislation, the Senate is not positioned to act before the deadline. Leadership in both parties appears to have concluded, for different reasons, that inaction is preferable to a bipartisan compromise.

This moment is shaping up to be a defining issue of the 2026 election cycle. Millions of Americans could lose coverage or face significant premium increases. Against a fragile economic backdrop, the personal and political stakes are exceptionally high.

House Republican leadership has signaled an intent to spend the first half of 2026 focused on health care policy, a commitment that hardline conservatives have embraced. This strategy carries risk. Republicans remain deeply divided on health care, while public trust on the issue continues to favor Democrats. In this environment, internal division compounds political vulnerability.

The Republican proposal itself is narrow in scope. It includes limited pharmacy benefit manager reforms focused primarily on transparency, cost-sharing reductions previously excluded during the One Big Beautiful Bill Act debate, codification of association health plans, and clarification of stop-loss insurance. Notably absent are expansions of health savings accounts, a long-standing Republican priority.

Speaker Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer are assembling a package of policies that have previously passed the House, betting that Democrats will be reluctant to oppose them. Democrats, however, have been consistent in their position: extending the enhanced ACA premium subsidies is the priority. Even if enacted, the Republican package would do little in the near term to address affordability concerns for Americans facing higher premiums or loss of coverage.

Complicating matters further, a procedural breakdown has emerged around a planned amendment from Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Jen Kiggans of Virginia to extend the subsidies. That agreement has collapsed over disputes about amendment language. Fitzpatrick, Kiggans, Mike Lawler of New York, and David Valadao of California are expected to bring their amendment to the House Rules Committee, where it is likely to be rejected. What happens next remains uncertain, leaving these moderates effectively uncommitted.

This raises significant questions about Speaker Johnson’s path forward. Can leadership pass the bill without moderate support, or attempt to divide the group by advancing alternative amendments? Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries may benefit from the Republican discord. A Democratic discharge petition already has 214 signatures, just short of the threshold needed to force floor consideration.

Four Senate Republicans recently voted to advance a three-year extension of the subsidies, aligning with the Democratic position and potentially providing political cover for House moderates. There are also multiple discharge efforts underway, including a bipartisan petition led by Fitzpatrick and another from Representative Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, which proposes a shorter, one-year extension with income caps.

Democratic leadership has so far declined to endorse these compromises. Representative Richard Neal of Massachusetts, the ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee, has characterized anything short of a clean three-year extension as insufficient.

Separately, efforts to advance the next minibus appropriations package remain stalled. Despite a renewed push from Senate Republican leadership, conservative opposition continues to block progress. With a January 30 shutdown deadline looming and limited legislative days ahead, the funding outlook remains uncertain.

Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs will continue to monitor developments closely and engage with congressional offices as these issues evolve. We will provide timely updates and strategic guidance as Congress moves into the new year.

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