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CapWatch:
August 11, 2025

CapWatch - Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs

Minnesota State CapWatch

Special Elections Set

As the summer starts to wind down, Minnesota voters are looking ahead to three upcoming special elections for open legislative seats. While none of the three would necessarily be considered a “swing district,” if any of them were to switch parties it would mean a change in control of one of the legislative chambers. That, coupled with the fact that voter turnout can be so difficult to predict in special elections, makes all three races worth watching.

The primary election for House District 34, the seat of the late Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman, will be held tomorrow, August 12, 2025, and the special election will be held on September 16, 2025. Three Democrats are vying for the seat including former Brooklyn Park City Councilmember Xp Lee, current Brooklyn Park City Councilmember Christian Eriksen and Erikson Saye, a Democrat from Brooklyn Park who currently serves as an attorney in the office of Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty. They will square off in tomorrow’s special election to determine the DFL candidate who will face Republican, Ruth Bittner, a Coon Rapids business owner.

Two Minnesota Senate special elections have been scheduled for November 4, 2025, with primaries for the two seats scheduled for August 26, 2025. The first in Senate District 29, is the former seat of Sen. Bruce Anderson (R-Buffalo Township) who passed away last month at the age of 75. The second is in Senate District 47, which was vacated when Sen. Nicole Mitchell (Woodbury) resigned following her conviction for felony first degree burglary last month.

Minneapolis Mayoral Race

While the legislative races have the potential to be incredibly impactful, the race for mayor of Minneapolis is likely the most high-profile contest heading into the fall. Earlier this summer the Minneapolis Democratic Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) endorsed Sen. Omar Fateh (DFL-Minneapolis) over two-term incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey. This was the first time in 16 years that the Minneapolis DFL had reached the 60% thresholder needed to endorse a candidate for mayor. Sen. Fateh’s success was seen as a major victory for the more progressive wing of the Minneapolis DFL, including those who identify as Democratic Socialists. However, because Minneapolis uses ranked choice voting for municipal elections, all candidates will face off on the same ballot regardless of party, and the winning candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the initial votes.

Another interesting twist in the race occurred recently when Democratic Gov. Tim Walz endorsed Mayor Frey for re-election, stating that he is a national leader on issues like housing and that he believes he is the right choice for the future of the city. Mayor Frey has also announced that he will challenge the DFL endorsement of Fetah over alleged issues with the electronic voting system used at the DFL convention.

St. Paul Mayoral Race

Last week Saint Paul’s Mayor Melvin Carter officially filed to run for his third term as St. Paul Mayor. However, despite it seeming unlikely that he would draw a serious challenger, many were surprised when state Rep. Kaohly Vang Her (DFL-St. Paul), announced her candidacy. Rep. Her, who represents HD 64A, which encompasses the Mac-Groveland, Cathedral Hill, Lexington-Hamilton, and Merriam Park neighborhood, has served in the legislature since 2019. Rep. Her previously worked for Mayor Carter. Two other candidates, Mike Hilborn and Yan Chen are also in the race.

Like Minneapolis, St. Paul also uses ranked choice voting to determine the winner. One other interesting note about this year’s St. Paul mayoral election is that the mayor typically serves a four-year term, without term limits, but the person elected in 2025 will only serve a three-year term. This is because last year, St. Paul voters approved a ballot measure to move the city’s mayoral and city council elections to presidential years starting in 2028.

Federal CapWatch

Congressional Recess and Key Political Developments

The House and Senate are in recess until September. President Donald Trump is in Washington at the start of the week and will travel to Alaska on Friday for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also expected to attend.

Later today, the President will announce new federal initiatives aimed at addressing crime in Washington, D.C. These proposals are expected to generate political debate when Congress returns, particularly around federal authority over local jurisdictions, public safety funding, and oversight measures.

Speaker Mike Johnson is in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a group of House Republicans for an annual donor retreat.

The upcoming summit in Alaska could shape congressional discussions when members return, particularly around U.S. foreign policy toward Ukraine and Russia, defense appropriations, and potential supplemental funding requests. These developments may influence both the September legislative agenda and year-end negotiations.

What to Watch

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