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CapWatch:
February 2, 2026

CapWatch - Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs

Minnesota State CapWatch

Sen. Klobuchar Makes It Official

On January 29, 2026, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar officially announced her campaign for governor of Minnesota. While the announcement was anticipated, Klobuchar’s formal entry into the race fills a gap on the Democratic side following Gov. Tim Walz’s decision to end his bid for a third term. With precinct caucuses set for tomorrow, February 3, 2026, Sen. Klobuchar is a strong favorite for the DFL nomination while numerous candidates continue to vie for the Republican nomination.

Sen. Klobuchar was first elected to the United States Senate in 2006 and previously served as a Hennepin County Attorney. If successful this November, she will have to resign from the U.S. Senate, creating a vacancy where either she or Gov. Walz (depending on timing) would then appoint someone to fill her seat until a special election would take place.

Minnesota Political News & Updates

As we look toward the 2026 legislative session and the 2026 elections, the political landscape continues to evolve as individuals announce retirements or new political endeavors. The following are a few developments from the past week:

As anticipated, both seats remained Democrat, which brings the Minnesota House of Representatives back to a 67-67 tie. The House will again require a power sharing agreement to be in place prior to the beginning of the legislative session and it is anticipated that the House will operate much like it did last session.

Federal CapWatch

Congress is once again in the midst of a crisis. The federal government has been partially shut down since Friday night, and as of Monday morning the Senate-passed, White House-negotiated funding package does not have a clear path through the US House of Representatives to President Donald Trump’s desk.

On Friday evening, the Senate passed two measures. The first was a five-bill FY2026 funding package. The second was a two-week Homeland Security stopgap designed to keep DHS funded while negotiations continue on potential ICE reforms through February 13. US Senator Chuck Schumer negotiated the short-term DHS agreement directly with the White House. House Democrats, however, were not unified behind that deal, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was not a party to the agreement.

That dynamic now puts Speaker Mike Johnson in a difficult position. He may be forced to move the funding package through the House using Republican votes alone, something that has repeatedly proven challenging this Congress. The House Rules Committee is scheduled to meet at 4:00 p.m. today to begin the process. If the rule advances, House leadership will then attempt to pass it on the floor amid growing resistance from rank-and-file Republicans.

Some Republicans, including Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, are threatening to block floor action entirely unless the Senate agrees to take up voter ID legislation. At the same time, the House Freedom Caucus remains firmly opposed to renegotiating Homeland Security funding, putting an additional bloc of more than 30 Republican votes at risk. Even if the rule passes, Johnson will still need to find 218 votes to approve the funding package, which could come to the floor as late as Tuesday.

Importantly, the House will have only one vote, concurring with the Senate amendment. Members will not be able to vote separately on the five-bill funding package and DHS funding. House Republican leadership initially considered moving the legislation under suspension of the rules, which would have required 290 votes. That option was abandoned after Democrats signaled unified opposition, leaving Republicans squarely responsible if the bill fails.

The Democratic vote count remains fluid. During a Sunday evening caucus call, most House Democrats expressed opposition to the bill, with many unwilling to support any DHS funding measure. However, senior Democrats including Congressman Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina indicated that Democrats should support the funding package, and others signaled they may vote yes if the bill reaches the floor.

This standoff is also a major test for President Trump. He will need to apply significant pressure on House Republicans to support both the rule and the overall package. At the same time, Democrats are demanding tangible evidence that the administration is serious about ICE reforms. Trust between Democrats and the White House remains extremely limited, and the president has largely stayed disengaged from legislative negotiations since last year’s tax package.

House Republican leadership has limited leverage to win over holdouts. One option under discussion is securing a renewed public commitment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune to bring the SAVE Act to the Senate floor. However, some House conservatives are insisting that voter ID language be attached directly to the must-pass spending package, a nonstarter for Democrats.

Complicating matters further, Democrat Christian Menefee won a special election in Houston over the weekend and is expected to be sworn in today. Once seated, his arrival will reduce the Speaker’s vote margin to just one vote, leaving virtually no room for defections.

The broader breakdown is striking. Congress is heading into February still wrestling with FY2026 funding, a situation many lawmakers privately describe as legislative malpractice. The fact that House Democrats are now questioning whether to uphold an agreement negotiated by Senate Democratic leadership has further exposed deep fractures within the party.

The White House maintains that it coordinated with House Democrats throughout the process, but House leadership has been clear that any deal negotiated solely with the Senate was insufficient to secure House passage. Republicans argue that Senate Democrats should not have finalized an agreement without House Democratic buy-in, and Speaker Johnson and President Trump may now be forced to engage directly with Jeffries to move forward.

All of this turmoil is premised on the assumption that Congress and the administration can quickly agree on DHS reforms acceptable to both parties. That outcome remains highly uncertain. Even if a deal were reached immediately, drafting legislative text and moving it through both chambers would take several days at minimum, pushing well beyond the deadline Congress set for itself.

Moreover, House leadership has already signaled resistance to some of US Senator Schumer’s core priorities, including restrictions on ICE agents wearing masks or requirements for visible identification. These divisions, combined with internal disagreements among House and Senate Democrats over the two-week DHS stopgap, make it increasingly difficult to envision a compromise that satisfies all sides.

Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs continues to closely monitor the evolving funding negotiations, House floor action, and DHS discussions as this situation develops. We are actively assessing potential impacts on client priorities and will provide timely updates as Congress works toward a resolution in what remains a highly fluid and unpredictable environment.

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