Next Budget Forecast Coming Soon
Each year Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) releases two different budget forecasts, with one in February and one in late November or early December. The second budget forecast of the year is the first one following the prior legislative session and provides public policy makers their first glimpse into the state’s financial situation heading into the next legislative session. Last week it was announced that the second forecast of 2025 is expected to be released on December 4, 2025.
Although the Minnesota Legislature does not have to pass a state budget during the 2026 legislative session, changes to the federal budget over the last six months make it more likely that legislators will need to consider some level of supplemental budget legislation this coming year. The next two budget forecasts will have a major impact on what options legislators might have at their disposal as they head into the 2026 legislative session.
Political Update
House Dynamics
Over the last several weeks Speaker Mike Johnson has exercised significant control over the House, including keeping the chamber out of session for 54 days during the shutdown and blocking the swearing-in of Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva. Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune also urged President Donald Trump not to negotiate with Democrats during the shutdown.
Momentum is now shifting. Rank-and-file members are increasingly asserting themselves, and several key developments this week reflect that change.
The House is expected to vote this week on the discharge petition directing the Department of Justice to release the full Jeffrey Epstein files. The petition reached 218 signatures, indicating deep dissatisfaction among Republican members regarding how Speaker Johnson and President Trump handled the matter.
The bill is expected to pass the House with a large bipartisan vote. Its prospects in the Senate are poor, but Senate Democrats will likely force procedural votes to spotlight Republican opposition.
A bipartisan group of House members is attempting to insert itself into Senate negotiations on renewing Obamacare tax credits. This is another example of the House membership working around leadership to influence major policy discussions.
Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will force a vote on a resolution disapproving of Congressman Chuy Garcia’s handling of his retirement and succession. This places House Democratic leadership in a politically difficult position and could create an unpredictable vote dynamic. Republican response is uncertain.
The House will also consider a bipartisan resolution repealing a provision in the FY2026 Legislative Branch appropriations bill that would allow senators to sue the Department of Justice for legal fees tied to the January 6 investigation. The measure should pass overwhelmingly. The issue underscores ongoing challenges for Speaker Johnson and Senator Thune as they navigate complex internal politics during the upcoming appropriations process.
Senate Outlook
The House vote will shape Senate activity this week. Senate Democrats plan to use unanimous consent motions to pressure Republicans into taking a position on the release of Epstein files. These moves will likely force GOP objections and intensify partisan messaging.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune plans to advance the next slate of FY2026 full-year funding bills. His goal is to combine several measures into a single package that includes Defense, Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Transportation-HUD. The Interior bill may be added.
The Senate could hold an initial procedural vote this week. Moving forward requires 60 votes and unanimous consent to package the bills together. Both will be difficult. Democratic senators remain divided following last week’s shutdown-ending agreement, which complicates Senator Thune’s path.
These bills represent Senate versions and have not yet been conferenced with the House. The previous bipartisan agreement paired three negotiated full-year funding bills with a continuing resolution through January 30.
Tensions among Senate Democrats remain high. The eight senators who voted with Republicans to reopen the government continue to face criticism from progressive members. This internal conflict could create further challenges for Senator Schumer as negotiations continue on major funding packages.
Key Hearings and Events This Week
Monday: House Rules Committee meets at 3 p.m.
Tuesday: House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on the future of deposit insurance and House Budget Committee conducts an oversight hearing on the Congressional Budget Office.
Wednesday: Senate Finance Committee holds a nominations hearing, including Arjun Mody for Deputy Social Security Commissioner and House Administration Committee holds a hearing on the STOCK Act.
Thursday: Senate Finance Committee considers additional nominations, including L. Brent Bozell III for U.S. Ambassador to South Africa
LHPA Monitoring
We will continue to monitor these developments closely on behalf of your priorities and provide timely updates as the House and Senate move forward.
