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CapWatch:
November 3, 2025

CapWatch - Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs

Minnesota State CapWatch

General Election Tomorrow

Tomorrow is General Election Day in Minnesota and there are several races of interest that could impact state and local politics. We will send out an additional update on Wednesday with results of the races we are watching including the Saint Paul and Minneapolis mayoral races, two Minnesota Senate special election races, and the Minneapolis, Saint Paul, and Bloomington City Council races.

A note on the Saint Paul General election – An interesting measure is on the ballot that would make a change to the city’s charter and would allow the Saint Paul City Council to give out fines for ordinance violations. This measure has been supported by Mayor Carter who believes that the ability to issue fines is a middle ground option and is necessary because the charter presently only allows for criminal penalties when people don’t follow the rules. That is unusual for major Minnesota cities, including Minneapolis, where administrative fines are a tool for enforcement. If this amendment passes, the City Council would be able to implement fines in 90 days but would need to consider and pass fines for each ordinance separately.

Political Updates

Rep. Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) announced her run for governor over the weekend. Demuth is considered the highest-ranking Republican candidate in the race, but said she also plans to continue has Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives over the next year, just as past DFL Speaker Margaret Anderson Keilliher did when she ran for governor in 2010.

Demuth is the second female Republican candidate to join the race who is currently a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove) entered the race a few months ago and has been traveling the state with her campaign. Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2006. A win for Demuth would make her the first woman and first black person to govern Minnesota. The GOP field for governor is crowded and could possibly lead to an expensive endorsement and primary battle.

Rep. Ron Kresha (R-Little Falls) announced last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026. Kresha is seven term Representative who is dealing with allegations that he filed false PPP loan applications for his company during the Covid-19 Pandemic. He has stated that the allegations are false and that he is not running again because he wants to spend more time with his family and his new grandchild. Two candidates have announced so far to run for Kresha’s seat, Bernie Penner of Brainerd and Brain Lindquist of Little Falls.

 Federal CapWatch

As the federal shutdown enters its fifth week, pressure is mounting on congressional leaders to find a path forward. LHPA continues to track developments in Washington and their implications for our clients’ federal priorities.

Today marks Day 34 of the federal government shutdown, with no resolution yet in sight. The House has now been out of session for 45 days, a striking indicator of the deep gridlock gripping Congress.

Despite the stalemate, there has been some modest movement in the Senate, where rank-and-file lawmakers continue bipartisan discussions aimed at restarting FY2026 appropriations negotiations. The hope remains that agreement on spending bills could eventually unlock a broader deal to reopen the government.

However, the core policy divide persists. The White House and congressional Democrats continue to insist that any reopening package include an extension of the expiring Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. Republican leaders, including President Trump, remain firmly opposed to that approach.

Tuesday’s off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and California will provide the first real test of voter sentiment since the shutdown began. Democrats are favored in both gubernatorial races, while in California, a statewide ballot measure on redistricting (Proposition 50) could reshape several congressional districts to the party’s advantage.

In other developments, a federal court ruling last week directed the administration to resume paying out SNAP benefits, temporarily easing concerns over food assistance programs during the shutdown. Meanwhile, the President has continued urging Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster, though Senate leadership maintains its opposition to such a move.

The coming week will be critical. If the Senate’s bipartisan discussions on spending bills show progress, it could lay the groundwork for reopening the government. Absent movement, federal employees, contractors, and states dependent on federal funds will face mounting fiscal strain as the shutdown stretches into its sixth week.

Looking Ahead:

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